How the looming El Nino will be amplified by climate conditions
Australia is on the brink of an El Niño event, predicted to bring drought, extreme heat, bushfires, and reduced snow cover, with the Climate Council warning that climate change is amplifying its effects. The World Meteorological Organisation and NOAA forecast an 80-90% chance of El Niño developing between June and November, with impacts extending globally, including droughts in Australia and floods in the Americas.
Australia is approaching an El Niño weather event, which typically delivers hotter, drier conditions, increased bushfire risks, and poor snow cover for skiing. The Climate Council states that climate change, driven by rising carbon pollution, is intensifying El Niño’s impacts, with current La Niña "cold years" now hotter than past El Niño "hot years." The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shifts between phases based on Pacific Ocean temperatures, and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology uses a 0.8-degree threshold for El Niño—currently, temperatures sit at 0.7 degrees above normal. Adjunct Professor Dr. Andrew Watkins of Monash University notes that climate change boosts drought, extreme heat, fire weather, and marine heatwaves during El Niño. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) issued a consensus declaration on Tuesday, predicting an 80% chance of El Niño from June to August and a 90% chance between July and November. NOAA previously forecasted El Niño’s emergence by July, with potential coastal damage in the U.S. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology confirmed El Niño’s likelihood this winter, warning of lower rainfall across Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia, and parts of Tasmania. The Climate Council anticipates drought, frost damage in southern cropping regions by September, extreme heat in October, and marine heatwaves, water shortages, and coral bleaching from January onward. Kelvin waves detected in autumn suggest rapid El Niño development, typically causing floods in the Americas and droughts in Australia and Asia. The Bureau cautioned that no two El Niño events are identical, but models consistently indicate its arrival this winter. Global temperatures are already 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer due to climate change, with El Niño further amplifying heat extremes.
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