How the Pennsylvania governor’s race will help decide who controls the U.S. House

Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro and Republican challenger Stacy Garrity officially became their parties’ nominees after running unopposed in Tuesday’s primary elections. Shapiro, a moderate Democrat with approval ratings above 50%, holds a strong advantage as an incumbent and three-time statewide winner, while Garrity, the state treasurer, received the highest vote total of any state-level candidate in Pennsylvania history during the 2024 election. The November race in Pennsylvania, a critical swing state, extends beyond the governor’s office, as both candidates aim to shape control of the U.S. House. Shapiro, a rumored 2028 presidential hopeful, is focusing on energizing Democratic voters in key districts like Bucks County, the Lehigh Valley, and South Central Pennsylvania to flip four congressional seats and secure House control for his party. His campaign is also pushing for a Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg, giving him broader governing power—a feat last achieved in 1993. Garrity’s campaign hinges on mobilizing GOP voters in critical congressional districts to prevent Democratic midterm gains and justify the state Republican Party’s early endorsement of her as a serious challenger. With Republicans advancing redistricting efforts nationwide, Shapiro has emphasized the urgency of these races, warning that Pennsylvania’s voters will play a decisive role in the midterms. Shapiro, who cast his ballot in Abington Twp. Tuesday morning, highlighted Pennsylvania’s outsized influence in the election, noting the state’s potential to determine the House majority. His campaign has leaned into bipartisan collaboration, a strategy reflected in his memoir and frequent national media appearances, as he seeks to position himself as a unifying figure ahead of potential higher office. Both candidates face high stakes: Shapiro’s success could bolster Democratic prospects nationally, while Garrity’s performance will be scrutinized as a test of the GOP’s ability to compete in a swing state. The race underscores Pennsylvania’s role as a battleground where state and national politics intersect.