How to Bet on the End of the World: A Guide to Disaster Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow traders to bet on catastrophic events such as climate change, natural disasters, and global economic collapse. The markets provide a probability of these events occurring, with some contracts implying a significant chance of disaster, such as a 27% chance of a supervolcano eruption before 2050.
Kalshi, a prediction market, allows traders to bet on catastrophic events. Contracts are available for events like climate change, natural disasters, and global economic collapse. A supervolcano eruption before 2050 has a 27% implied probability. Other contracts include a magnitude eight earthquake hitting California, with an 8% implied probability, and a major meteor strike, with a 63% implied probability. These markets provide a way to quantify the likelihood of these events. Traders can use these markets to hedge against potential disasters or speculate on their occurrence.
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