‘I hate Labour, but I’ll vote Burnham’: how Reform could be derailed by tactical voting
Voters in the Makerfield constituency are engaging in tactical voting ahead of the June 18 by-election, aiming to either support Andy Burnham to weaken Labour’s Keir Starmer or block Reform’s Robert Kenyon to prevent further party fragmentation. Pollster More in Common found widespread anger toward the Labour Government, with voters prioritizing strategic choices over party loyalty, despite mixed feelings about the candidates.
The upcoming June 18 by-election in Makerfield, a seat Labour won in the 2024 general election with 45% of the vote, has become a pivotal moment for UK politics. Polling data from More in Common reveals voters are divided between supporting Labour’s Andy Burnham—despite dissatisfaction with the party—or blocking Reform’s Robert Kenyon to prevent further right-wing gains. Focus groups showed voters are strategically choosing candidates to either weaken Labour’s leadership or stop Reform’s rise, with many expressing anger toward the current government. One participant stated they would ‘hold their nose’ and vote for Burnham ‘not Labour,’ while another admitted voting Labour only to prevent Reform’s victory. Concerns over immigration and frustration with Nigel Farage’s Reform party also influenced some voters, though Restore Britain, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, remains a divisive factor. Makerfield’s local elections saw Reform surge to 50% of the vote, compared to Labour’s 24%, highlighting shifting political dynamics. If Burnham wins, it could trigger a Labour leadership contest and boost his chances against Keir Starmer. Conversely, Kenyon’s victory as a local plumber could derail Burnham’s Westminster ambitions and deepen Labour’s internal turmoil. More in Common’s director, Luke Tryl, noted tactical voting dominates the race, with voters prioritizing protest over party loyalty. Some fear Restore Britain could split the right-wing vote, benefiting Reform. The by-election’s outcome will likely shape Labour’s future and the trajectory of Reform’s influence in British politics.
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