IEP - Record Conflicts Drive Peace to Historic Low as AI warfare surges
The 2026 Global Peace Index reports a historic decline in peacefulness, with 99 countries worsening in stability and AI-driven warfare accelerating drone attacks by 11,500% since 2018, while deaths from conflict surged to over 181,000 in 2025. Military spending hit a record $2.9 trillion, and the share of conflicts ending in peace agreements dropped to just 4%, as the 'Great Fragmentation' reshapes global power structures.
The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) released its 2026 Global Peace Index (GPI), revealing a dramatic deterioration in global peacefulness. For the first time, 99 countries experienced worsening conditions, the highest number since the index’s 20-year history, while 73% of nations are less peaceful than in 2007. External conflicts nearly doubled from 59 in 2008 to 103 in 2026, with deaths from violence reaching 181,000—a sixfold increase since 2008. The economic toll of violence rose 3.2% to $21.81 trillion in 2025, equivalent to 10.5% of global GDP. AI and autonomous systems are transforming warfare, compressing targeting times from days to seconds and enabling drone attacks by 565 armed groups, including criminal cartels. In Gaza, algorithmic targeting reportedly reduces human review to 20 seconds per strike, while Ukraine deploys autonomous systems without operator oversight. Russia is now the least peaceful country globally, displacing Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ukraine, and Israel. Iceland retained its top spot for the 19th consecutive year, followed by New Zealand, Switzerland, Slovenia, and Ireland. South Asia saw the sharpest regional decline, driven by instability in Nepal and Pakistan, while the U.S. fell to its lowest-ever ranking at 134th due to political unrest and violent protests. The report highlights a 'Great Fragmentation' reshaping global governance, with traditional powers like Germany, France, and Italy losing economic influence—Germany’s GDP share dropped 49% since 1995. Multilateral institutions are weakening, and conflicts now end in peace agreements just 4% of the time, down from 23% in the 1970s. Proactive peacebuilding receives only 0.52% of global military spending, which hit a record $2.9 trillion in 2025. Steve Killelea, IEP’s founder, warned that conflict clusters are expanding, particularly along an instability arc stretching from South Asia through Iran and the Middle East to the Horn of Africa. He emphasized that AI and geopolitical shifts are outpacing traditional peacekeeping mechanisms, making conflicts harder to resolve.
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