If CLARITY Clears the Senate by August, Where Does XRP Trade by Q4?

The CLARITY Act, a bill that could settle XRP’s legal status as a commodity and transfer most crypto oversight to the CFTC, is one vote away from Senate approval but must pass before the August recess. The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill on May 14, and it reached the Senate floor on June 1, leaving only a few weeks before the recess begins. If the bill fails to pass now, it could stall until the end of the decade due to election-year priorities, according to crypto supporters like Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno. Before a full vote, the bill must merge with a version from the Agriculture Committee and secure 60 votes. The sticking point is Section 604, which protects crypto software developers from bank-like regulations but has drawn opposition from law enforcement groups. These groups argue the clause weakens their ability to prosecute crypto-related crimes, while developers claim it prevents legal risks for blockchain projects. A June 11 White House meeting involving law enforcement and crypto advocates, including House Majority Whip Tom Emmer and administration crypto lead David Sacks, aimed to resolve the dispute. The bill’s fate hinges on Democratic support, as Republicans cannot pass it alone. Senators Mark Warner and Catherine Cortez Masto have indicated their votes depend on addressing law enforcement concerns. If the White House negotiations produce acceptable language, the bill could pass before August; otherwise, it may face delays. XRP’s price could surge if the bill passes, as major buyers have openly stated they are waiting for legal clarity. Currently trading around $1.13, XRP has remained stagnant despite retail ETF demand, partly due to its unresolved legal status. The bill’s potential approval could unlock institutional buying, lifting the price significantly by year-end if the Senate acts before the recess. The next few weeks will determine whether the CLARITY Act becomes law or gets delayed, with implications for XRP’s market position and broader crypto regulation. The outcome depends on whether negotiators can bridge the gap on Section 604 and secure enough votes before the Senate adjourns.