India Needs an Urgent Economic Ringfence Amid the West Asia Crisis, say experts at Think Change Forum Roundtable
A Think Change Forum white paper proposes a three-point economic strategy for India—tax moderation, stricter import controls on non-essential goods, and faster enforcement of trade-remedy measures—to counter a widening trade deficit of over $333 billion in FY2025-26 amid the West Asia crisis. Experts at a New Delhi roundtable warned against relying on subsidies and urged structural reforms to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce foreign exchange outflows.
India’s trade deficit surged to $333 billion in FY2025-26, with merchandise imports reaching $774.98 billion against exports of $441.78 billion, prompting economists to call for urgent policy changes. The Think Change Forum (TCF) released a white paper titled *Economic Ringfence Amid the West Asia Crisis*, outlining a three-point agenda: tax moderation to improve export competitiveness, targeted import discipline for non-essential and demerit goods, and time-bound enforcement of trade-remedy measures. The report recommends shifting imports of luxury and non-essential goods from the Open General Licence framework to restricted licensing, while delaying purchases of high-value items. It also highlights a sharp rise in rejections of anti-dumping recommendations by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR), from 0.5% (1991–2020) to 81% in November–December 2025, signaling weak protection for domestic industries. Experts at a TCF roundtable in New Delhi, including Akhilesh Ranjan (Retd., Central Board of Direct Taxes) and Rajat Mohan (AMRG Global), argued for a ‘selective economic doctrine’ balancing global integration with stricter controls on imports distorting domestic markets. They warned against over-reliance on fiscal subsidies to absorb shocks from crude oil volatility and supply-chain disruptions, instead advocating structural reforms to strengthen domestic manufacturing. The panel emphasized India’s need to develop high-value, aspirational industries locally, reducing dependence on imports like bakers’ wares ($81.7 million) and chocolates ($135.9 million). Rajeev Gupta, MD of RDI, stressed that domestic products must achieve the same perceived value as imported brands to sustain long-term economic resilience. Participants urged immediate notification of trade-remedy measures where injury to domestic industries is established, alongside calibrated import restrictions to preserve foreign exchange reserves. The white paper aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent appeal for voluntary reduction in non-essential imports during the West Asia crisis.
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