India Q4 GDP in FY26 grows 7.8% ; FY26 growth at 7.7% despite global headwinds

India’s economy expanded by 7.8% in the January-March quarter (Q4 FY26), according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday. For the full fiscal year FY26, real GDP growth reached 7.7%, up from 7.1% in FY25, reinforcing its position as one of the fastest-growing major economies globally. Economists had projected slower growth, with a CNBC-TV18 poll estimating Q4 growth at around 7.3% and FY26 growth at 7.5%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and government estimates had also anticipated growth above 7% for FY26. Despite domestic resilience, risks loom for FY27, with YES Bank and SBI Research forecasting a slowdown to 6.6%, citing global demand slowdowns and trade uncertainties. Energy prices pose a significant threat, as India imports over 80% of its oil. Emkay Global warned Brent crude could rise toward $90 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, potentially worsening inflation and trade deficits. Higher oil prices could further strain growth prospects, though domestic demand remains supported by government spending and strong services activity. The latest GDP figures highlight India’s ability to sustain growth amid global headwinds. However, policymakers face challenges balancing domestic momentum with external risks, including energy market volatility and shifting financial conditions. Rural demand and farm activity remain stable, but global developments will heavily influence FY27 performance.