India’s population will soon be falling—probably quite fast

India’s population growth is slowing sharply, with its total fertility rate (TFR) falling to 1.9, below the 2.15 needed to sustain long-term stability. The country, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous in 2023, now faces a demographic shift similar to China’s, where population decline began in 2021. In states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, fertility rates have dropped to 1.3, matching levels seen in Finland, while urban India averages 1.5. The decline contradicts past trends, as even poorer northern states are now converging with wealthier regions in lower birth rates. In 1950, India’s average woman had six children, but improved healthcare and economic conditions have accelerated fertility reduction. Experts like Neelkanth Mishra of Axis Bank note the unexpected speed of the decline, while officials now warn of an aging population before economic prosperity is achieved. Government responses include incentives like Andhra Pradesh’s 30,000 rupee ($315) payout for couples with a third child, a reversal from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 2019 warnings about a ‘population explosion.’ Demographers attribute the shift to early-stage development combined with rapid mortality declines, leaving birth rates unsupported by traditional factors like poverty or young mothers. The consequences could be severe, with India potentially facing labor shortages and economic strain before achieving full development. While fewer people may ease infrastructure pressures, the demographic shift risks political and social instability. New school textbooks will soon highlight the risks of low fertility, marking a shift in national discourse from overpopulation to population decline.