Inflation, interest rates expected to be 'higher for longer,' survey of economists shows
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A survey of economists predicts that inflation and interest rates will remain 'higher for longer', with only 6% expecting the US to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target by the end of the year. The economists also forecast modest job growth and slightly higher unemployment.
A survey of 18 economists by Bankrate found that they expect inflation and interest rates to remain elevated for an extended period. The economists predicted a 34% chance of a recession in the next year and forecast modest declines in mortgage rates and Treasury yields. They also expected monthly job growth to average around 41,000, down from the previous quarter's prediction of 64,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.6% in a year. The survey was conducted from March 23 to April 1, after the conflict in Iran led to a surge in gas prices. The economists' forecasts reflected a wide range of predictions, indicating uncertainty about the labor market.
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