Inflation nears 16% as geopolitical risks mount

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate reached 15.93% in May 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), marking the third straight monthly increase after a brief decline in February. The Consumer Price Index rose to 140.7 from 138.3 in April, reflecting a 2.4-point jump in general price levels. While the month-on-month inflation rate eased to 1.75%—down from 2.13% in April—the annual rate continued climbing, up from 15.69% in April and 15.38% in March. The NBS attributed the inflation surge to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising energy costs, insecurity, and import bottlenecks. Food inflation remained the largest driver, contributing 6.38 percentage points to the annual rate, with staples like onions, maize, and tomatoes seeing price hikes. Non-food categories such as transport, housing, and education also drove inflation, though the overall rate remains significantly lower than the 26.06% recorded in May 2025. Food prices alone rose 16.96% year-on-year, down from 24.55% in May 2025, though month-on-month food inflation climbed to 2.98% from 3.63% in April. The average 12-month inflation rate stood at 18.36%, a drop from 30.57% in the same period of 2025. The NBS noted persistent inflationary pressures outside food and energy, signaling ongoing economic challenges. Business leaders cited geopolitical risks and supply disruptions as key factors behind the rising costs. The report highlighted that while inflation has moderated compared to 2025, sustained pressures from food and import costs continue to strain the economy. The NBS emphasized that the latest figures reflect broader structural issues, including insecurity and energy price volatility.