Interview: What the 2026 El Niño means for India

India’s monsoon season is expected to be weaker than usual this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revising its forecast to 90% of the long-period average, down from 92%. The downgrade follows concerns over an emerging El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which typically suppresses monsoon activity and could exacerbate drought conditions across South Asia. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defines El Niño as a weakening of trade winds in the Pacific, pushing warm water eastward and disrupting global weather patterns. This often leads to reduced rainfall in India, droughts in Australia and parts of Africa, and increased flooding in South America. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms each El Niño event varies in intensity, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting nine to twelve months. WMO’s Chief of Climate Prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia, stated climate models now strongly indicate an El Niño onset, with further intensification expected in coming months. While the term ‘super El Niño’ is not officially recognized by the WMO, some scientists warn of a potentially extreme event, drawing parallels to the 1877 El Niño linked to India’s Great Famine. Raghu Murtugudde, an earth systems scientist at the University of Maryland and IIT Kanpur, noted models suggest a strong El Niño, though consensus does not guarantee accuracy. A weak monsoon could severely impact India’s agriculture, food security, and inflation, compounded by ongoing global energy supply disruptions from the West Asia conflict. The IMD also forecast a warmer June, adding to concerns about prolonged heatwaves and energy demand. Experts emphasize the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks, including water management and crop planning. While the exact strength of this El Niño remains uncertain, its potential impacts on India’s weather and economy are significant. Authorities and scientists are closely monitoring developments to prepare for possible droughts, reduced yields, and inflationary pressures.