Is a ‘super’ El Niño bad news for India’s monsoon?
Scientists are predicting a possible 'super' El Niño in 2026-27, which may impact India's monsoon, but the relationship between El Niño and monsoon is not straightforward. Historical data shows that even strong El Niño events do not always lead to drought in India.
A possible 'super' El Niño is predicted for 2026-27, sparking concerns about India's monsoon. El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that can influence rainfall patterns globally. While it is often linked to weaker monsoons in India, the relationship is not clean. Since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, but only seven saw below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and other factors also play a crucial role in shaping the monsoon. The intensity and timing of IOD can either enhance or suppress rainfall, making it difficult to predict the monsoon's outcome based on El Niño alone.
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