Is Russia’s economy really on its last legs?

The head of Swedish military intelligence, Thomas Nilsson, stated that Russia's economy is far weaker than it appears, citing manipulated statistics and an understated inflation rate of 15%. However, experts argue that this figure is likely incorrect, as it does not align with the rouble's real exchange rate or import trends. Russian inflation data from other sources, such as Chinese export figures, suggest a slowing economy rather than one experiencing double-digit inflation. The claimed 15% inflation rate is close to data from Romir, a Russian marketing research firm, but this data only tracks fast-moving consumer goods and is not comparable to the Consumer Prices Index. Claims about Russia's budget deficit being understated by $30 billion are also disputed, as there is no evidence of a surge in domestic borrowing or significantly higher inflation. Russia's fiscal performance in January and February was alarming, but this is not evidence of a larger deficit.