It’s Official: US Declares El Niño Has Arrived

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the arrival of El Niño, with a 63% chance it will intensify to 'very strong' status by late 2026, potentially ranking among the strongest events since 1950. Experts warn this could trigger record temperatures, extreme weather, global food shortages, and exacerbate climate crisis impacts, with NOAA confirming its determination based on sea surface temperatures and atmospheric anomalies in the equatorial Pacific." "article": "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño on June 11, marking the second major weather agency to do so after Japan’s Meteorological Agency. NOAA’s announcement followed persistent above-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific, alongside wind and convection anomalies, confirming the shift from neutral conditions to El Niño. There is now a 63% chance El Niño will intensify to 'very strong' status between November 2026 and January 2027, potentially ranking among the strongest events since 1950. Stronger El Niños increase the likelihood of extreme weather, including record-shattering temperatures, supercharged storms, regional droughts, wildfires, floods, and global food shortages. NOAA’s projections, backed by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, indicate the event will strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The phenomenon is part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the most influential year-to-year climate variation globally, impacting temperatures and weather patterns worldwide. NOAA’s determination aligns with the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s earlier declaration, with other agencies and the World Meteorological Organization expected to follow. Human-caused climate change complicates forecasts, as rising carbon emissions amplify Earth’s temperature, making it harder to distinguish natural ENSO effects from anthropogenic warming. To address this, NOAA now uses the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), a climate change-adjusted metric for tracking El Niño intensity. Meteorologists warn El Niño’s peak effects on global temperatures will likely occur later this year into 2027, setting new records and altering climate patterns for years. While not all regions will experience extreme impacts, stronger El Niño events significantly increase the odds of extreme weather outcomes, according to NOAA’s seasonal outlooks.