Leftist parties' true nightmare

Four Arab parties in Israel—Ra’am, Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad—are close to running together in the upcoming elections, despite months of strained negotiations. The agreement lacks a unified ideological platform but prioritizes electoral survival, with Mansour Abbas of Ra’am pushing for a flexible, commitment-free bloc. Polls suggest a united list could win 15-16 seats, up from the current 10, primarily at the expense of the center-left bloc. If the Arab parties secure 16 seats, the anti-Netanyahu coalition may only reach 55 seats, falling short of the 60 needed to form a government. Even with Ra’am’s support, the bloc would still require additional seats from Hadash, Ta’al, or independent figures like Ahmad Tibi, deepening concerns among right-wing voters. Likud has already used this arithmetic to attack the center-left, portraying Abbas alongside former rival Naftali Bennett to sway undecided voters. The center-left bloc avoids discussing these numbers openly, instead focusing on vague promises. However, the election results will likely force a reckoning with the arithmetic reality. Right-wing voters fear dependence on multiple Arab parties, while opponents of Netanyahu’s government grapple with the possibility of being unable to govern without their support. The negotiations reflect a pragmatic shift: Hadash and Balad accepted a weak framework to avoid falling below the electoral threshold. Abbas, meanwhile, retains flexibility to pursue post-election coalition options. The outcome hinges on voter turnout among Arab communities, which polls suggest could exceed 65%, further altering the balance of power. This election hinges on numbers rather than ideology, with both sides calculating risks and rewards. The final seat count may determine whether Israel sees a shift in government—or a prolonged political stalemate.