Middle East war drives energy surge, pushing up inflation and weakening Dutch economy
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The war in the Middle East is expected to drive up energy prices, pushing inflation higher and weakening the Dutch economy. The Centraal Planbureau (CPB) study projects broad economic pressure under all scenarios, with sharper impacts if elevated oil prices persist.
The Netherlands' economy is expected to weaken due to the war in the Middle East, which is driving up energy prices. A Centraal Planbureau (CPB) study analyzed three scenarios, finding faster inflation, weaker growth, and reduced purchasing power in all cases. Under the market expectations scenario, Dutch GDP is projected to grow 1.4% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027. However, if energy prices rise sharply, GDP growth could fall to 0.5% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027. The CPB said the shock to energy markets feeds quickly into the wider economy, raising transport costs and prices for goods and services. Lower-income households face the most uneven impacts, with some facing annual cost increases of 200-350 euros or more.
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