Moderna Is Up 94% This Year: Is It Outperforming Other Vaccine Stocks Like Pfizer and Novavax?

Moderna’s stock rose 9% on Tuesday, trading near $57, extending its 94% year-to-date gain—the best performance among major vaccine stocks. Pfizer’s stock is up just 4% YTD, while Novavax has gained 41%, highlighting Moderna’s outperformance. The surge follows Moderna’s announcement of a leadership restructuring to support its pipeline of up to three vaccine launches by 2027-2028. President Stephen Hoge will oversee R&D, manufacturing, and commercial operations, while Ester Banque joins as Chief Commercial Officer. This restructuring aligns with plans for a flu-plus-COVID combo vaccine, a seasonal flu vaccine, and a norovirus vaccine. Today’s rally also reflects recent regulatory progress, including EU approval for mCOMBRIAX, the world’s first flu-COVID combo vaccine, and an upcoming August 5 PDUFA decision for mRNA-1010, a seasonal flu candidate. Investors see 2026 as a setup year for future growth. Moderna’s performance contrasts with Pfizer’s diversified business model and Novavax’s royalty-driven approach. Pfizer’s Q1 2026 revenue was $14.45 billion, but vaccine sales declined sharply, while Novavax’s Q1 revenue hit $139.51 million, driven by licensing deals. Despite the rally, Moderna faces challenges, including an $878 million litigation charge in Q1 2026, widening its GAAP loss to $1.34 billion. Analysts remain skeptical, with a $37 average 1-year price target and a consensus "Reduce" rating. The stock is still down 74% over five years. The next key event is an FDA advisory committee vote on June 18 for mFlusiva, a flu vaccine for adults 50 and older. A positive outcome could further boost investor confidence, while a mixed review may test the stock’s recent gains.