National mood is against Republicans, but redistricting could help prop them up
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows President Trump’s approval rating at 37%, with 63% blaming him for rising gas prices, while Republicans gain ground in Virginia and Tennessee redistricting battles that could offset midterm losses. Historical data suggests Trump’s party faces an average loss of 33 House seats in midterms when approval falls below 50%, with key voter groups like white non-college graduates and Southern adults shifting away from him since 2024.
President Trump and Republicans face steep challenges in the 2026 midterm elections, according to a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, with 59% disapproving—including 51% who strongly oppose his performance. Economic concerns dominate, as 80% of respondents say gas prices strain household budgets, and 63% blame Trump for the increases tied to the war with Iran. His economic approval is at 35%, and only 33% approve of his handling of Iran. The poll underscores a broader trend: key voter blocs that supported Trump in 2024, such as white voters without college degrees, parents with young children, and Southern adults, now give him a net-negative approval rating. Millennials, Latinos, and younger voters—groups that shifted toward Trump in the presidential election—have also moved away. Despite the national mood, Republicans are gaining traction in redistricting battles. Wins in Virginia and Tennessee this week could reshape electoral maps to their advantage, potentially mitigating expected midterm losses. Historically, the president’s party loses an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats in midterms, with losses worsening to 33 House seats when approval falls below 50%, as it has for Trump. Trump has acknowledged the midterm disadvantage, telling Fox Business last month that even strong presidents typically lose seats. He vowed to reverse the trend. The data suggests voter frustration with his party is intense, with each of the last five midterms featuring presidents below 50% approval. Redistricting remains a critical factor. Republican gains in Virginia and Tennessee could alter electoral dynamics, but the broader poll numbers indicate a challenging path ahead for the GOP in November.
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