National Retail Federation Projects 2026 U.S. Retail Sales to Rise 4.4 Percent, Exceed $5.6T
The National Retail Federation projects 2026 US retail sales to grow 4.4% to $5.6 trillion, outpacing pre-pandemic averages. This growth is expected despite global volatility, with consumer spending serving as a pillar of economic support.
The National Retail Federation has projected a 4.4% growth in US retail sales for 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion. This forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. The growth is expected to be driven by consumer spending, which has been a steady engine of growth despite fluctuating economic conditions. The retail industry supports approximately 55 million jobs, making it the largest private sector employer in the US. In 2025, holiday sales reached over $1 trillion for the first time in history. The NRF expects consumer resilience to continue into 2026, with household spending serving as a pillar of economic support.
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