NATO is dead. Meet CALM.
NATO's credibility is undermined by multiple issues, including Europe's lack of investment in security and the US's de facto withdrawal from its NATO commitment. European officials are quietly planning a 'European NATO' as a fallback in case the US withdraws its support.
NATO's core mission to deter war is failing as Europe stopped investing in security and the US has de facto turned its back on its commitment. The Alliance is divided on multiple levels, including disagreement on strategic ambitions and failure to respond to Russian aggression. Germany, Poland, France, the UK, and others fear a war with Russia by 2029. European officials are advancing contingency plans for a 'European NATO' to maintain deterrence against Russia. Germany's historic reversal on European defense sovereignty has unlocked broader support from other European countries. The plans aim to preserve command continuity and nuclear credibility if the US steps back.
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