Next El Niño likely to push global temperatures to new highs
The United Nations climate projections warn that global temperatures have a 75% chance of exceeding the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold between 2026 and 2030, with a 91% chance of at least one year surpassing it. A strong El Niño event, expected to persist until 2028, could drive temperatures to record highs, accelerating Arctic warming and intensifying extreme weather like droughts and wildfires in regions like the Amazon.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts a high likelihood that global temperatures will repeatedly surpass the 1.5°C warming threshold over the next five years, with a 75% chance of the 2026–2030 average exceeding pre-industrial levels. The report also predicts a 91% chance that at least one year in this period will break the 2024 record for the hottest year on record, driven by a strong El Niño event expected to last until 2028. Temperatures are projected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above late 1800s levels, with 2027 likely to surpass 2024’s heat record. The Arctic is expected to warm nearly 3°C (1.66°C) above pre-industrial levels by 2030, three times faster than the global average, due to reduced ice and snow reflecting solar radiation. This rapid warming threatens ecosystems like coral reefs and glaciers, while increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and wildfires in vulnerable regions such as the Amazon. The WMO’s projections are based on 200 simulations from 13 global climate models, reinforcing concerns about accelerating climate change. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold does not mark an abrupt tipping point but intensifies risks, including food price shocks, loss of life, and infrastructure strain, according to climate scientist Melissa Seabrook of the U.K. Meteorological Office. Friederike Otto of Imperial College London warns that prolonged periods above 1.5°C could trigger unprecedented heat, drought, and wildfires, overwhelming current preparedness measures. The projections suggest warming may accelerate faster than previous decades, raising alarms among scientists. The Amazon faces heightened drought and wildfire risks, undermining its role as a natural carbon sink. Meanwhile, the Arctic’s rapid warming exacerbates global temperature rises by reducing reflective ice cover. The WMO emphasizes that while these trends are alarming, sustained climate action remains critical to mitigating long-term impacts. The report underscores the urgency of addressing fossil fuel emissions to prevent further escalation of climate hazards.
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