NOAA releases 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its first forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season on May 6, predicting a below-average season with 8–14 named storms. Of these, 3–6 could become hurricanes, with 1–3 reaching major Category 3 or higher intensity. NOAA cited the development of El Niño later in the season as the primary factor suppressing storm activity, though warmer-than-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures could fuel tropical development. Earlier forecasts from Colorado State University aligned with NOAA’s outlook, predicting slightly below-average activity, while the University of Arizona’s experts forecasted an above-average season due to warmer ocean temperatures. The University of Arizona’s model suggests El Niño may not fully develop until later in the season, allowing sea surface temperatures to drive storm formation. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirmed El Niño is expected to develop soon and persist through the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Stronger wind shear and atmospheric stability associated with El Niño typically weaken Atlantic storms, though warmer waters in tropical regions can enhance tropical activity. Inland flooding remains a key concern for Central Texas, as seen in July 2025 when remnants of Tropical Storm Barry brought devastating floods despite not being an active storm. The region’s distance from the coast reduces risks of hurricane winds and storm surge but leaves it vulnerable to tropical moisture and heavy rainfall. The 2025 Atlantic season saw no U.S. hurricane landfalls, though Tropical Storm Chantal brushed the East Coast. The contrast between forecasts highlights the uncertainty in predicting hurricane seasons, where competing factors like El Niño and ocean temperatures influence outcomes.