NVIDIA is Up 20% in a Month. Could the May 20 Earnings Report Knock It Right Back Down?

NVIDIA’s stock rose to $236 on May 16, extending a 20% gain over the past month and a 27% rise year-to-date, making its market cap the largest globally at $5.71 trillion. The company’s shares have climbed 74% in the last year and nearly 1,559% over five years, setting the stage for its Q1 FY2027 earnings report on May 20, just six trading days away. Analysts project a $269.17 average price target, with 57 Buy ratings and only one Sell rating, while insider activity shows net buying. However, NVIDIA’s stock has dropped on three of the last four earnings releases despite consistent beats, including a 6% decline after its Q4 FY2026 report on February 25, which beat expectations by 7%. The bull case remains strong, supported by CEO Jensen Huang’s statement that computing demand is growing exponentially due to AI. Q4 FY2026 revenue hit $68.13 billion, with Data Center revenue at $62.31 billion and a 75% gross margin. The company guided Q1 FY2027 revenue to approximately $78 billion, a record if achieved, alongside long-term product visibility like the Rubin platform, which promises a 10x cost reduction in AI inference. Investors will focus on Data Center commentary, hyperscaler order timing, and supply chain updates during the earnings call. NVIDIA excluded China Data Center compute revenue from its guide, reducing downside surprises but also limiting upside potential from that region. Historically, NVIDIA’s stock has swung 5% to 10% in either direction following earnings, with its size now influencing broader market movements. Despite high expectations—including a 97% probability of another beat—traders caution that the rally may face profit-taking. The structural AI demand remains robust, but the bar for further gains is elevated, leaving investors divided on whether NVIDIA can sustain its momentum.