Oil, equity prices shape Iran War adverse scenario macroeconomic impact: Fitch Ratings
Fitch Ratings predicts a negative global economic impact if the Iran conflict continues until the end of the first half of 2026, driven by higher oil prices and declining equity markets. The adverse scenario would result in lower global real GDP, with the US, Japan, and Korea being the hardest hit, and slower growth in several emerging markets.
Fitch Ratings analyzed the potential economic impact of an adverse scenario in the Iran conflict. Higher oil prices and declining equity markets would be the main drivers of the negative impact. Global real GDP would be about 0.8% lower after four quarters compared to the base case. The US, Japan, and Korea would be the hardest hit by higher oil prices. Falling equity prices would have the strongest effect in Canada, Korea, and the US. Several emerging markets would experience slower growth due to higher bond index spreads.
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