Poll suggests lead for Fine Gael's Sean Kyne in Galway West

Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne holds a narrow lead in the upcoming Galway West Dáil bye-election, according to a new poll by The Irish Times/TG4/Ipsos B&A. Kyne is projected to secure 17% of the vote, followed closely by Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas at 16%, while Labour’s Helen Ogbu trails with 12%. When second preferences are factored in, Kyne remains the predicted winner, though his 17% falls below the average winning first-preference vote in recent bye-elections. The poll, conducted via telephone interviews with 530 eligible voters between May 1-5, shows a highly fragmented race among 17 candidates. The top three—Kyne, Thomas, and Ogbu—are ahead of a chasing group of six, including Social Democrats’ Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich (9%), Fianna Fáil’s Cillian Keane (8%), and Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan (7%). The bye-election follows the resignation of President Catherine Connolly, whose former campaign manager, Sheila Garrity, currently sits at just 3%. Kyne benefits from Fine Gael’s past strength in Galway West, where the party won the 2024 General Election, and his role as former Government Chief Whip. Independent Ireland’s Thomas, however, has gained 6.6 percentage points since the last election, though his support remains weaker in Galway City, where Kyne leads with 16% and Ogbu with 15%. A strong performance in Galway City is considered crucial for victory. The poll also reveals a significant drop in Fianna Fáil’s support, halving from 16.8% in the 2024 General Election to 8%. Labour’s Ogbu, however, has outperformed her party’s national standing, raising hopes of reclaiming a seat last held by former President Michael D. Higgins. With two weeks until polling day, the fragmented field and left-leaning candidates’ presence may test the Vote Left Transfer Left pact’s effectiveness.