Polymarket targets Japan market entry, seeks regulatory approval by 2030

Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has appointed Mike Eidlin as its Japan representative to begin lobbying for regulatory approval by 2030. Currently, the platform blocks Japanese users due to Japan’s strict gambling laws, which create legal uncertainty around event-based trading. Japan’s rapid 120% year-on-year growth in on-chain value through June 2025 makes it a prime target for Polymarket, which views the country as an untapped business opportunity. However, prediction markets fall into a regulatory gray zone between financial derivatives and gambling, requiring Japan’s Financial Services Agency to create a new classification—a process expected to take years. Polymarket’s recent surge in activity strengthens its position: monthly transaction volumes grew from $1.2 billion in early 2025 to over $20 billion by January 2026, with a single-day record of $425 million in February 2026. The platform’s notional trading volume reached $7.2 billion in late January, with revenue and fees hitting $21.8 million and $27.2 million, respectively. The company’s credibility is further bolstered by a $1.6 billion investment from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange. This financial backing supports Polymarket’s argument that prediction markets are a legitimate financial infrastructure tool rather than a speculative gambling product. Regulatory challenges remain significant, as Japan’s Financial Services Agency must determine whether prediction markets fit within existing financial derivatives rules or require new legislation. The 2030 timeline reflects the complexity of navigating Japan’s strict regulatory environment while positioning Polymarket as a major player in Asia’s expanding digital asset market.