Prediction: Trump’s Iran Deal Will Spark a Stock Market Rally Into Midterms

President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he was pausing the U.S. operation escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz for a short period to allow negotiations with Iran to continue. This led to a sharp climb in stock futures as investors reassessed the risk of a prolonged oil shock. Oil prices had been rising, with the national average for regular gasoline hitting $4.536 per gallon, up 1.2% in 24 hours and 12% higher than two weeks prior. Recent AI earnings reports from companies like Advanced Micro Devices, Nvidia, and Microsoft showed continued growth in enterprise spending on artificial intelligence, with data center demand remaining elevated and cloud spending expanding. The combination of lower geopolitical tensions and earnings growth could matter politically with midterm elections six months away. The pause in the tanker escort operation reduced the odds of a supply shock, causing oil futures to pull back and stock index futures to turn higher.