Prepare for El Niño, UN warns. It could be the strongest in decades

The United Nations has issued a warning that a strong El Niño event could emerge within weeks, likely intensifying over the rest of 2026 and potentially becoming one of the strongest ever recorded. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that this event may rival past 'super' El Niños, driven by unusually warm waters spreading across the tropical Pacific Ocean—more than 6°C above average in some areas—hundreds of meters deep. Scientists, including those from the UK Met Office and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, have observed deep-sea heat as a precursor to surface warming, which disrupts global weather patterns. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that this El Niño will exacerbate the effects of climate change, leading to extreme weather events with greater speed and severity. While exact timing remains uncertain, forecasts suggest heightened risks of droughts and wildfires in South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, alongside weakened monsoons in India and increased flooding in the southern US. Past El Niño events have triggered food price spikes and economic losses in the hundreds of billions or trillions, disrupting supply chains. Though its peak is expected around Christmas, scientists caution that even if it falls short of 'super' status, the combination with climate change could still produce unprecedented impacts. Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth noted that 2027 is likely to become the world’s warmest year on record, with current warming trends making even a moderate El Niño event far more dangerous than in previous decades. The WMO highlighted that El Niño’s strength depends on unpredictable wind patterns, but its effects will be amplified by human-induced climate change. Michelle L’Heureux of NOAA described this as a 'big event,' with global temperatures already elevated. The warning underscores the need for preparedness, as extreme weather events linked to El Niño could cross borders rapidly, worsening humanitarian crises worldwide.