Representation vs Reservation in UP Politics: BJP, SP and the New Backward Caste Battle Before 2027

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dominance in Uttar Pradesh (UP) has faced its first major challenge after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led INDIA alliance won 43 of the state’s 80 seats, reducing the BJP-led NDA to 36. This shift reflects a decline in the BJP’s support among non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and non-Jatav Dalits, communities it had previously consolidated through reservation policies and Hindutva mobilization. To counter this trend, UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s government approved a dedicated OBC commission led by retired Justice Ram Avatar Singh to conduct a ‘triple test’ survey for local body quotas. The move aims to strengthen the BJP’s appeal among backward castes ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections, as village *pradhans* and panchayat representatives play a key role in shaping local caste dynamics and voter mobilization. The SP’s PDA (*Pichchda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak*) strategy, which consolidates backward castes, Dalits, and minorities, appears to have gained traction, with the INDIA alliance securing 56% of non-Jatav votes and 82% of Yadav votes in 2024, compared to the BJP’s 29% and 15%, respectively. The BJP’s share of reserved seats also dropped from 15 in 2019 to just eight in 2024, while the SP’s rose from zero to seven. In response, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav accused the BJP of orchestrating an *“aarakhshan ki loot”*—a systematic “loot of reservation”—by allegedly denying backward communities their constitutionally mandated share in jobs and representation. The political battle now centers on whether the BJP can reconsolidate its OBC and Dalit base or if the SP’s PDA coalition will sustain its momentum in the lead-up to 2027. Analysts note the BJP’s urgency stems from its unexpectedly weak performance in 2024, particularly among non-Jatav Dalits and other OBC groups, which had previously voted cohesively for the party. The CSDS-Lok Niti post-poll survey highlights a gradual shift in these communities toward the Opposition, forcing the BJP to recalibrate its caste-based electoral strategy.