Road to 2028: Long campaign has begun

The Philippines’ political landscape is shifting aggressively as key factions prepare for the 2028 national elections. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s administration, once cautious in political maneuvering, has begun actively shaping the Senate majority through endorsements like Senator Sherwin Gatchalian’s leadership, signaling a break from its earlier coexistence with former President Rodrigo Duterte’s allies. The Duterte camp, meanwhile, is under mounting pressure—legal battles in The Hague, Senate impeachment trials starting July, and high-profile figures like Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa facing scrutiny—diverting resources from offensive strategies to damage control. The upcoming impeachment trial, a national spectacle amplified by social media, will serve as a political battleground. Unlike past trials, today’s hyperconnected environment allows TikTok, Facebook, and AI-generated content to sway public opinion rapidly, framing the proceedings as a proxy contest for 2028. Senators are positioning themselves to either demonstrate leadership or sharpen partisan credentials, with the Senate itself becoming a theater for political ambitions. Uncertainty over who will inherit the political center after Marcos has sparked intense maneuvering. The Marcos coalition aims to weaken Duterte’s influence but must address the broader challenge of uniting disparate factions. Political alliances and institutional loyalties are being tested as potential contenders are evaluated not just on electoral strength but on their ability to consolidate support across divided groups. Legal and political pressures are reshaping the Duterte camp’s strategy. Former allies like Go and dela Rosa are caught in a defensive posture, with each legal development generating headlines that reinforce their vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration’s endorsement of the Senate majority marks a deliberate shift from passive observation to active influence, reflecting an acknowledgment of an old political truth: engagement is necessary to avoid becoming a victim of the game. The race for a post-Duterte standard bearer is accelerating, as administration strategists recognize that replacing a political movement is harder than weakening it. The search for a unifying figure to occupy the center of Philippine politics remains the defining challenge, with every political realignment and institutional move calculated toward securing advantage in the lead-up to 2028.