Rocket Lab's stock rebounds, as one analyst says the SpaceX-fueled selloff was misguided

Rocket Lab’s stock rebounded on Monday, climbing 4% in early trading, as analyst Michael Leshock of KeyBanc argued that the selloff triggered by SpaceX’s public debut was unwarranted. Leshock noted that macroeconomic drivers fueling the space sector’s growth remain intact and are not dependent on SpaceX’s public status. He upgraded both Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY) to *overweight*, projecting a 32% increase for Rocket Lab and an 85% gain for Firefly based on their medium-lift launch vehicles—Neutron and Eclipse, respectively. The analyst highlighted that SpaceX’s focus on scaling Starship, its massive rocket for internal missions like Starlink launches, could create opportunities for competitors. While Starship offers higher payload capacity, many customers prefer dedicated launches, which Rocket Lab and Firefly could fulfill. Leshock also pointed to U.S. government efforts to reduce reliance on SpaceX, such as NASA’s lunar contracts involving Blue Origin and others, as a tailwind for smaller providers. Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket is slated for its first launch by year-end, while Firefly’s Eclipse debut is targeted for no earlier than 2027. Leshock emphasized that demand for Neutron is strong, with CEO Peter Beck stating in May that the backlog remains healthy for years. The analyst’s optimism contrasts with Friday’s market reaction, where SpaceX’s IPO drew investor attention away from other space stocks, though Leshock dismissed this as a short-term overreaction. The broader space sector’s growth is driven by increased access to orbit, a trend SpaceX helped pioneer but one that benefits all launch providers. Leshock argued that companies with their own vehicles will adapt quickly to industry shifts, positioning them well for long-term success. Meanwhile, Rocket Lab’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 later this month underscores its growing prominence in the sector.