Rupee hits record low, crude bites; Nifty ends flat as IT rescues the day
India’s rupee hit a record low of 96.61 against the US dollar amid rising crude oil prices near $110 a barrel and persistent geopolitical tensions, while the Nifty ended flat after IT sector gains offset broader market losses. The Reserve Bank of India’s interventions provided limited relief as inflation fears and a widening trade deficit weighed on the economy, with midcap and smallcap indices outperforming benchmarks.
India’s financial markets faced volatility on Tuesday as the rupee plunged to a record low of 96.61 per US dollar, driven by sustained dollar demand, elevated crude oil prices near $110 a barrel, and geopolitical risks tied to West Asia tensions. The Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to stabilize the currency have had minimal impact, exacerbating concerns over imported inflation and corporate margins amid recent fuel price hikes. The Nifty closed nearly flat at 23,618, down 0.14%, while the Sensex settled at 75,200.85, down 0.15%, after aggressive derivative unwinding erased early gains during the weekly expiry session. The IT sector emerged as the sole bright spot, with the Nifty IT index surging 3.2%—its third consecutive gain—due to a weaker rupee benefiting export-oriented tech firms. Institutional investors capitalized on bargain purchases following months of sectoral corrections. Midcap and smallcap indices outperformed benchmarks, rising 0.91% and 1.17% respectively, while the India VIX declined 5.45% to 18.55, signaling reduced near-term panic despite historically high volatility. Brent crude rebounded toward $110 a barrel by session end, as fears of Strait of Hormuz disruptions persisted, despite brief optimism over potential delays in US military action against Iran. Investor attention also turned to HDFC Bank, where the board is expected to appoint a new chairman before Keki Mistry’s interim term ends in June 2026. Leadership clarity is critical for stability at India’s largest private lender. Meanwhile, Eureka Forbes reported a strong Q4 FY26 performance, with revenue up 11.6% year-on-year and an EBITDA margin of 13.2%. Analysts advised selective stock picking based on sectoral trends, noting the Nifty must reclaim the 24,000 mark for a more optimistic outlook, with immediate support between 23,250 and 23,450. The week ahead will hinge on global cues, crude oil trends, and India’s first-quarter CY2026 GDP growth data, due later Tuesday.
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