Scientists warns that El Niño threatens extreme weather as phenomenon under way

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared that El Niño has started, marked by sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific rising 0.5C above average. This weather pattern, which occurs every two to seven years, transfers heat from the ocean to the atmosphere, intensifying global temperatures already elevated by climate change. NOAA reports that above-average sea surface temperatures and shifting winds above the equatorial Pacific confirm El Niño’s onset, with forecasts suggesting a strong event. There is a 63% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño—defined as temperatures 2C above average—between November and January, potentially ranking among the strongest since 1950. Some models even predict temperatures could exceed 3C above average by year’s end. Scientists warn this El Niño could push global temperatures to unprecedented levels, following 2024’s record warmth driven by a weaker event. Professor Adam Scaife of the UK Met Office highlights that the current El Niño is amplified by decades of human-caused warming, risking severe weather, food shortages, and economic strain. The phenomenon is expected to peak by late 2026 or early 2027, with lasting impacts on vulnerable regions worldwide. While El Niño typically follows La Niña, its intensity this time raises concerns about compounded climate effects. NOAA’s June outlook underscores the likelihood of extreme conditions, urging preparedness for potential disruptions in agriculture, infrastructure, and public health systems. Experts emphasize the need for global coordination to mitigate risks as the event unfolds.