Six things to watch out for in the Scottish election

The Scottish Parliament election results will reveal whether the SNP, led by John Swinney, achieves its goal of a 65-seat majority to push for Scottish independence. The party’s path hinges on winning enough constituency seats while avoiding losses to Labour or the Liberal Democrats, as Holyrood’s mixed electoral system complicates a clear majority. A fragmented vote between opposition parties could either help or hinder the SNP’s ambitions, with tactical voting playing a critical role. Labour’s Anas Sarwar is the only other leader openly campaigning for first minister, but his party trails in polls and lacks a clear route to power. If the SNP falls short of a majority, the Greens—led by Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay—could back Swinney for a pro-independence coalition. Alternatively, unionist parties like the Lib Dems, Conservatives, and Reform UK might unite behind Sarwar, though tensions have flared over potential deals with Reform’s Malcolm Offord. Sarwar has ruled out accepting Reform’s support, leaving his prospects uncertain. Turnout is a major wild card, with predictions of a drop from 2021’s 63% to the low-to-mid 50s, aligning with earlier decade trends. While 4.2 million are registered to vote, a 150,000 decline in postal voters—who typically cast ballots—suggests lower participation. The party that mobilizes its base most effectively could gain an edge, as voter fatigue dominates the political landscape. Several high-profile incumbents face tight races, including Labour’s Jackie Baillie, who has held Dumbarton since 1999 but now faces a strong SNP challenge. Other seats could shift due to low turnout or tactical voting, reshaping Holyrood’s balance. The outcome will determine not only the next first minister but also the trajectory of Scotland’s constitutional future and its relationship with the UK government.