S&P says Middle East war to hit African states’ credit ratings

S&P Global said a prolonged Middle East war will worsen the risk to African economies, as many are net importers of oil, fuel, and fertilizers. Higher fuel and fertilizer import costs will increase inflation and fiscal strains on African sovereigns, potentially leading to rating pressure. Large oil exporters like Angola and Nigeria may benefit from rising export receipts, but their reliance on imported refined fuel could limit these gains. Nigeria's increasing domestic refining capacity might lead to larger benefits. The depth of local capital markets could offset pressures, particularly for South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt. S&P's outlook for sovereign credit in Africa was positive at the outset of 2026, but the Middle East conflict has dampened this by raising refinancing costs. Rising fertilizer prices can reduce domestic food production and strain African household budgets. Africa's borrowing costs are expected to increase due to global risk aversion and rising international fuel prices.