SpaceX Investors Could Be in for a Rude Awakening, According to 1 Top Wall Street Analyst

SpaceX’s shares surged after its record-breaking IPO, but Wall Street analyst Nicolas Owens of Morningstar warns investors the stock may be overvalued. The firm’s discounted cash flow models suggest SpaceX is worth $63 per share—nearly 70% below its midday trading price of $163 on June 16, 2026. Morningstar gave SpaceX favorable assumptions, including weekly Starship launches and space-based AI data centers, but still concluded the valuation relies more on hype than fundamentals. Owens acknowledged short-term drivers like SpaceX’s small initial float, AI infrastructure demand, and rapid Nasdaq-100 inclusion, but cautioned that selling pressure could emerge as early investors unlock shares. Morningstar’s Mark Hulbert noted that large-cap stocks often underperform the S&P 500 historically, raising doubts about long-term gains. Starlink, SpaceX’s main revenue source, faces direct competition from Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which CEO Andy Jassy claims will offer cost and performance advantages. Governance risks also loom: Elon Musk’s 82% voting control allows unilateral decisions, potentially prioritizing personal interests over shareholder value. A major concern is Musk pursuing acquisitions, such as Tesla, which could dilute shares through new issuances. Morningstar’s analysis highlights execution risks, including Starship’s unproven commercial viability and regulatory hurdles for space-based AI. While SpaceX’s IPO set a market cap record, Owens’ valuation challenges its sustainability, urging investors to weigh speculative growth against financial realities.