SpaceX Is Up 49% Since Its IPO. Is December the Stock’s First Real Test?

SpaceX’s stock has climbed 49% since its record-breaking $85 billion IPO, reaching a market capitalization of $2.66 trillion and briefly surpassing Amazon. The company’s shares jumped 19% in its first two trading sessions and another 4% shortly after, driven by strong demand despite skepticism over profitability and valuation. Investors are betting on SpaceX’s growth potential, with the company already announcing a $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, signaling expansion beyond rockets and satellites into artificial intelligence. The stock’s initial scarcity—only 555.6 million shares were publicly traded—amplified demand, pushing its value higher. December marks a critical test for SpaceX’s stock as most insider lockups expire, allowing early investors, employees, and backers to sell shares. The unlock schedule is staggered, with tranches releasing at key milestones, including after Q2 and Q3 earnings, and a full release around December 8, 2026. Elon Musk’s stake, representing 40% economic ownership, remains locked until June 2027, preventing a sudden sell-off from the largest shareholder. Historically, mega-cap IPOs often underperform three to six months after debut, raising concerns about SpaceX’s ability to sustain its momentum. The company’s valuation assumes years of flawless execution, a challenge given its unprofitable status and reliance on future growth. Analysts warn that insider selling and market corrections could test investor confidence before year-end.