‘Super El Nino’ isn’t a real scientific term but experts warn the climate risks are very real

Australian climate experts have dismissed the term 'Super El Niño' as a media invention, but warn that a strong El Niño event could still bring severe weather risks later this year. Dr. Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University, told 7NEWS that while no official agency has declared an El Niño yet, forecasts suggest warming Pacific Ocean temperatures could trigger conditions by mid-2026. The World Meteorological Organization has raised the likelihood of an El Niño event developing, though Watkins emphasized that current discussions about its intensity are premature. El Niño is part of the natural El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which shifts every few years and influences global weather patterns. During an El Niño, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures near South America pull moisture and clouds away from Australia, often leading to hotter, drier conditions, increased bushfire risks, and drought. The Bureau of Meteorology currently states Australia remains in a neutral ENSO phase, but climate models indicate a possible transition to El Niño conditions in coming months. Scientists stress that climate change is exacerbating the potential impacts of El Niño, making even average events more extreme. Australia has warmed by about 1.5°C since 1910, according to the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, with Watkins noting that droughts now start earlier and extreme weather events are more intense. While forecasts remain uncertain, the combination of natural variability and human-induced climate change heightens concerns about the coming months. International forecasting agencies, including the Bureau of Meteorology, are monitoring Pacific Ocean temperatures closely. So far, no agency has confirmed an El Niño event, but Watkins cautioned that the risks—including prolonged drought, severe heatwaves, and bushfires—are very real. The discussion around 'Super El Niño' has fueled online panic, but experts urge caution, emphasizing that the science is still evolving.