Tesla (TSLA) Stock Climbs as SpaceX IPO Demand Falls Short of Expectations

Tesla shares climbed 1.4% to $396.65 in Monday’s premarket trading, recovering from a 6.6% decline on Friday. The drop followed strong U.S. employment data, raising fears of higher interest rates, which dragged down the tech-heavy Nasdaq by 4.2%. Tesla’s stock now trades within its 52-week range of $281.85 to $498.83, with a 13% year-to-date loss but a 37% gain over the past year. SpaceX’s upcoming $75 billion IPO has drawn $150 billion in investor interest, resulting in a two-times oversubscription ratio. Wall Street typically views successful IPOs as achieving four-to-five-times oversubscription, making SpaceX’s demand appear underwhelming. The offering’s final pricing is set for Thursday, with investor appetite potentially shifting in the coming days. Concerns persist that Tesla shareholders may sell shares to fund SpaceX purchases, adding downward pressure on Tesla’s stock. Meanwhile, betting markets assign a 43–50% probability to a Tesla-SpaceX merger by late 2026 or mid-2027, following SpaceX’s market debut. Tesla’s latest quarterly report showed earnings per share of $0.41, slightly exceeding the $0.39 estimate, but revenue of $22.39 billion fell short of the $22.96 billion forecast. Revenue still grew 15.8% year-over-year. Institutional investors like Manchester Capital Management increased Tesla holdings in the fourth quarter, while executives, including CFO Vaibhav Taneja, sold shares worth $20.6 million over the past three months. Analysts maintain a collective 'Hold' rating on Tesla, with a mean price target of $404.37. The stock’s 50-day moving average stands at $395.33, while the 200-day average is $416.11. The company’s financial performance and potential ties to SpaceX continue to shape investor sentiment.