That Didn't Take Long: SpaceX Earned Its First Wall Street Sell Rating Less Than an Hour After Trading Began

SpaceX's highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, 2026, marked the largest capital raise in history at $75 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco and closing its first trading session with a market cap of approximately $2.1 trillion. The company briefly became the seventh-largest publicly traded company, overtaking Broadcom, Tesla, and Meta Platforms. Within 20 minutes of its Nasdaq debut, SpaceX received its first Wall Street sell rating from CFRA analyst Keith Snyder, who set a price target of $115. Given the stock's closing price of $160.95, this suggests a potential decline of up to 29%. Snyder’s concerns focused on execution risks in SpaceX’s reusable launch vehicle, Starship, and growth uncertainties tied to its AI subsidiary, xAI. Starship, central to reducing launch costs, faces delays and setbacks due to its capital-intensive development. Snyder also questioned xAI’s growth trajectory, noting it lacks sufficient margins or differentiation to justify a premium valuation despite SpaceX’s prospectus assigning it a $28.5 trillion addressable market. Historical data shows that large tech IPOs have underperformed significantly. Truist Financial reported that 30 of the largest tech IPOs since May 2012 averaged a 55% drawdown in their first year, with SpaceX potentially facing a similar fate if retail investor enthusiasm fades. The stock could drop below $80 if it follows this trend. Additionally, no company leading a major technological shift has sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 over the past three decades, raising further valuation concerns. Snyder’s sell rating underscores skepticism about SpaceX’s ability to optimize AI and space infrastructure for profitability in the near term.