The blue-collar town that’s set to decide Britain’s next Prime Minister

Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester and former Labour Party minister, is campaigning in Ashton-in-Makerfield to secure a parliamentary seat in a June 18 special election—a race that could decide Britain’s next prime minister. Burnham, a left-wing advocate for nationalizations and tax hikes, aims to unseat Keir Starmer, whose leadership faces pressure after Labour’s poor performance in recent local elections and Reform UK’s surge in polls under Nigel Farage. Makerfield, a historically Labour-supporting town near Liverpool and Manchester, has become a political focal point due to Starmer’s declining popularity. Polls show Burnham is more favored than Starmer, with many Labour lawmakers backing a leadership change. However, Reform UK’s anti-immigration platform and the struggling economy pose challenges for Burnham’s bid. During a recent visit, Burnham engaged with local voters, including Peter Cain, a butcher who criticized Labour’s perceived complacency. Burnham emphasized his commitment to working-class priorities, though his plan to challenge Starmer from within Labour risks confusing voters. Analysts predict Starmer will be forced out this year, with Burnham as the leading successor, but financial markets remain wary of further political instability. Burnham’s potential rise could reshape UK politics, with Labour potentially overtaking Reform UK in national polls if he leads. However, investors fear higher government borrowing and taxes if his left-wing policies expand state intervention. The outcome of the Makerfield election will determine whether Burnham gains momentum or stumbles in his bid to replace Starmer and redefine Labour’s direction.