The economic chilling effect of Trump's immigration crackdown
New research finds Trump’s 2025 immigration crackdown—marked by quadrupled ICE arrests and expanded interior enforcement—harmed employment for U.S.-born workers, particularly in industries reliant on undocumented labor, contradicting claims that deportations boost native job prospects. Economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox analyzed data from the Deportation Data Project, showing the crackdown failed to improve labor market conditions overall and instead disrupted economic activity in affected communities like Chicago’s Little Village neighborhood.
A study by economists Chloe East of the University of Colorado Boulder and Elizabeth Cox reveals that President Trump’s 2025 immigration enforcement crackdown worsened labor market outcomes for U.S.-born workers rather than improving them. Their working paper, *Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0*, found that deportation policies—particularly the quadrupling of ICE arrests and a shift to interior and street arrests—disrupted industries dependent on undocumented labor, such as construction. This contradicts the narrative that deportations create jobs for native workers, instead showing broader economic harm. The research builds on earlier observations from 2025, when NPR’s *Planet Money* documented a ‘chilling effect’ in Chicago’s Little Village neighborhood ahead of ICE raids. Businesses and workers avoided normal activities due to fear, signaling economic slowdowns in immigrant-heavy areas. The new data confirms these effects were not isolated incidents but part of a larger trend under Trump’s second term. The Deportation Data Project, a nonprofit using FOIA requests, provided critical arrest records that exposed enforcement shifts. Under Trump 2.0, ICE arrests surged beyond border zones, targeting communities nationwide. This strategy, combined with increased street arrests, deepened economic instability in areas where undocumented workers were essential. East’s findings challenge the ‘zero-sum’ labor market myth, where immigrants are framed as competitors for jobs. Instead, the data supports evidence that immigration strengthens core industries and overall economic growth, benefiting native workers through expanded opportunities. The crackdown’s unintended consequences underscore the fragility of labor-dependent sectors when immigration enforcement intensifies. The study highlights how policy changes ripple through communities, affecting both immigrant and native-born workers. While Trump’s administration framed deportations as a labor market solution, the economic data tells a different story—one of reduced job prospects and disrupted local economies.
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