The Farmers Caught in the Middle of Trump’s Tariffs and the Iran War

Brett Neibling, president of the Kansas Soybean Association, operates a 2,500-acre farm in Highland, Kansas, where automated systems control crop storage and drying. His farm’s profitability hinges on soybean exports, but Trump’s tariffs and retaliatory duties from major buyers—particularly China—have crippled sales. The Iran war further worsened the crisis by closing the Strait of Hormuz in March 2025, spiking oil and fertilizer costs, which farmers must absorb. In the first eight months of 2025, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted to 25% of the previous year’s levels, and from late May to November 2025, no soybeans were shipped to China at all. Brazil, the world’s top soybean producer, now supplies the majority of China’s demand. Neibling described the economic situation as ‘tough,’ noting that market fluctuations now often follow Trump’s social media announcements, creating instability. The current trade war is more severe than the 2018 conflict, when Kansas farmers alone lost nearly $1 billion in soybean and sorghum sales. Jonathan Coppess, a University of Illinois agricultural economist, called soybeans a ‘geopolitical pawn’ in Trump’s trade battles, emphasizing their role in shaping global economics. For Neibling, the policies have made the global economy feel ‘local,’ with rising costs and lost revenue directly impacting his farm. Despite frustrations, many farmers retain trust in Trump, hoping Congress or the White House will eventually address their struggles. However, the immediate consequences—falling exports, soaring input costs, and Brazil’s rising dominance—have already caused lasting damage to family farms across the Midwest.