The keys to Abelardo de la Espriella’s first-round victory in Colombia: anti-Petro and anti-politics sentiment

Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia’s presidential election first round with 44% of the vote, surpassing left-wing senator Iván Cepeda, who received 40%. De la Espriella’s victory stems from his ability to unite the right-wing vote, which was split four years ago between two candidates, drawing 10.3 million votes compared to the combined 11 million from the right in 2022. The campaign’s polarization played a key role, fueled by De la Espriella’s outsider rhetoric and Cepeda’s controversial labeling of the right-wing Uribismo movement as ‘fascist.’ Paloma Valencia, the traditional right-wing candidate, struggled after shifting toward a centrist message by selecting an openly gay economist, Juan Daniel Oviedo, as her running mate. This weakened her appeal among hardline right-wing voters, who instead rallied behind De la Espriella. Electoral data shows De la Espriella’s stronghold in former Uribismo strongholds, including Medellín, where he won 676,000 votes compared to Valencia’s 102,000. Similar trends appeared in border regions like Cúcuta and overseas consulates, where his support surged while Valencia’s declined. This shift reflects a broader realignment of Colombia’s right toward a more populist, far-right agenda. De la Espriella’s anti-politics stance—positioning himself as a representative of ‘the never’ against ‘the always’—resonated with voters disillusioned by traditional politics. His victory underscores growing dissatisfaction with President Gustavo Petro’s left-wing policies and the fragmentation of Colombia’s political landscape. The runoff will now pit De la Espriella against Cepeda, with the outcome likely hinging on voter turnout and the ability to mobilize supporters amid deep divisions.