The Manchurian electorate in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, how big?

The Election Commission of Malaysia will meet on June 12 to finalize polling dates for the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, with July 20 emerging as a probable date, coinciding with the World Cup final. These elections are framed by deepening identity politics, testing whether racial divisions still dominate Malaysian politics in 2026. PAS has intensified its political strategy by severing ties with Bersatu within the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition, though it retains membership. The party is assembling a broader Malay-first alliance, inviting parties like Pejuang, Putra, Berjasa, and Iman, while offering a lifeline to Ibrahim Ali. Former Umno leader Annuar Musa has been reactivated to revive Muafakat Nasional, a proposed unity coalition, though Umno president Zahid Hamidi remains skeptical, fearing PAS’ ambitions could overshadow Umno’s current coalition, Rumah Bangsa. Umno’s fortunes have shifted since June, when Onn Hafiz set the election course, as the party leverages its 80th anniversary and Malay political dominance. MCA and MIC have rallied behind Umno, though concerns persist over past associations with Pakatan Harapan. Meanwhile, PN’s internal crisis deepens, with PAS and Bersatu effectively ending their partnership, leaving smaller allies like Gerakan and MIPP in a precarious position. The elections serve as a litmus test for Malaysia’s political trajectory, with PAS betting on heightened polarization—especially among younger voters—to rally support for its grand coalition. The party’s strategy includes using its logo for Johor’s campaign and sidelining PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar in favor of Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim. Despite PAS’ limited success in Johor and Negeri Sembilan during the 2022 general election, its leadership remains confident in mobilizing Malay voters for a decisive victory.