The ‘super El Niño’ is here. What happens next could upend food systems worldwide.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño, which could become the strongest this century, disrupting global food systems through extreme droughts and heavy rainfall. Scientists warn this phenomenon, combined with global warming, may exacerbate agricultural disruptions and food insecurity worldwide, with potential parallels to historic famines like those in 1877 linked to severe El Niño events.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially declared the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon that redistributes warm air and moisture across the tropical Pacific, raising global temperatures. Forecasters warn this could be the strongest El Niño this century, with average Pacific surface temperatures expected to rise by over 2 degrees Celsius, potentially triggering extreme weather like severe droughts and heavy rainfall worldwide. El Niño occurs cyclically every two to seven years, peaking around December or January, though its impacts may not fully materialize until later in the year. Trade winds weaken or reverse during El Niño, pushing warm Pacific water eastward, disrupting global weather patterns. NOAA predicts a high likelihood of a 'very strong' El Niño, though some agencies, like the World Meteorological Organization, avoid labeling it a 'super' El Niño. The phenomenon’s effects vary by region, causing droughts in some areas and floods in others, threatening key agricultural zones. Scientists like Jennifer Burney of Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability are studying how El Niño interacts with global warming, which could worsen food security risks. Historical records show past strong El Niños, such as in 1877, contributed to devastating famines in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, with colonial policies exacerbating the crises. The last major El Niño in 2023–2024 was among the five strongest ever recorded, linked to record-breaking global temperatures and severe droughts in southern Africa. These conditions devastated crops in arid regions dependent on rainfall, highlighting the vulnerability of global food systems to climate-driven disruptions. Experts emphasize the need for continued monitoring as this year’s El Niño unfolds, given its potential to reshape weather patterns and agricultural outcomes worldwide.
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