The top-two primary was supposed to change California politics. Did it flop?

California’s top-two primary system, designed to create competitive elections by allowing cross-party matchups, largely failed to deliver meaningful contests in the 2024 statewide races. Despite the system’s intent to encourage moderation by forcing candidates to appeal to a broader electorate, Democratic candidates secured the top two spots in only one race—the insurance commissioner’s contest between Jane Kim and Ben Allen. In other high-profile races, including lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller, and treasurer, well-funded Democrats advanced against Republican challengers, with no competitive general elections expected in November. The system, approved by voters in 2010 and championed by then-Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, was meant to reduce partisan gridlock by allowing multiple candidates from the same party to compete in primary elections. However, Democratic vote share—consistently around 60%—has remained just below the threshold needed to regularly produce Dem-on-Dem races, according to Andrew Sinclair, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College. ‘After about 60% to 65% Democratic vote share, it starts to get much more likely to get D-on-D races,’ he noted, describing the current vote share as an ‘electoral dead zone.’ Tuesday’s primary results reinforced California’s partisan divide, with Democratic incumbents like Mike Thompson and Brad Sherman advancing without significant progressive challenges. Even in congressional districts where progressive candidates sought to unseat moderate Democrats, the upstarts failed to secure the top two spots, leaving only Republican opponents in the general election. The only exception was the insurance commissioner’s race, where two Democrats, Kim and Allen, will face off in November. Political observers argue that California’s electorate, though heavily Democratic, lacks the overwhelming leftward shift needed to consistently produce Dem-on-Dem races under the top-two system. With most statewide contests featuring a Democratic candidate against a Republican, the general election outcomes remain predictable, reinforcing the state’s reputation for partisan dominance. The system’s original goal of fostering moderation and competition appears unfulfilled, at least for now.