The War in Ethiopia Isn’t Over

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s peace agreements, signed in 2018 and 2022, have not ended the country’s instability. The 2022 Pretoria Agreement halted the two-year Tigray conflict, which killed hundreds of thousands and displaced over a million, but violence persists in Tigray and other regions. New armed factions oppose disarmament and power-sharing terms, while neighbors like Eritrea face diplomatic tensions risking escalation. The ethno-federal system, established in the 1990s, divides Ethiopia into 12 ethnically defined states with autonomy rights, including potential secession. The former ruling coalition, EPRDF, dominated politics under Tigrayan leadership until Abiy took power in 2018. His push for centralized authority, replacing ethnic parties with the Prosperity Party, left many communities uncertain about their future, particularly federalism supporters. Abiy’s reforms have instead intensified ethnic divisions, with political elites exploiting identity-based grievances. The government’s halfhearted implementation of peace deals—such as disarmament and power-sharing—has fueled mistrust and new insurgencies. Diplomatic disputes with neighbors add to instability, risking proxy conflicts or open confrontation. Ethiopia’s security challenges stem from unresolved federalism disputes and Abiy’s unfulfilled promises of unity. While regional diplomacy could ease tensions, the government must demonstrate political courage and commit to reforms. Failure to address grievances risks prolonged conflict, potentially reigniting war. The June 1 elections, expected to secure Abiy’s Prosperity Party another term, highlight the government’s focus on political control over stability. Without addressing ethnic divisions and implementing peace agreements, Ethiopia’s fragile peace remains at risk of collapse.