The worst climate future is less likely, but the best one is slipping away, scientists say
Scientists now consider the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit unattainable, with even the best-case scenario exceeding it by 0.2°C, while worst-case projections have dropped from 4.5°C to 3.5°C due to renewable energy gains. New models suggest global warming will peak at 1.7°C for decades before potentially declining if carbon removal technologies emerge, though current emissions trends keep Earth on a ~3°C path by 2100.
Scientists have revised their climate projections, eliminating the most extreme scenarios while confirming the 1.5°C warming target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement is no longer feasible. A new study by Utrecht University’s Detlef Van Vuuren and colleagues presents seven updated carbon pollution scenarios, removing the previously projected 4.5°C worst-case warming by 2100. Instead, the new worst-case scenario caps at 3.5°C, reflecting progress in renewable energy adoption like solar, wind, and geothermal power, which have reduced carbon emissions projections. The best-case scenario now exceeds the Paris goal, peaking at 1.7°C for up to 70 years before potentially dropping below 1.5°C only if future carbon removal technologies succeed. Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, noted the shift means ‘it cannot be as bad as we thought, but it cannot be as good as we hoped.’ Current global warming stands at 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, with emissions continuing to rise and lingering in the atmosphere for centuries. The middle-ground scenario projects 3°C warming by 2100—a trajectory aligned with current policies. Even small increases in temperature exacerbate ecological damage, including species loss, water scarcity, and intensified extreme weather like floods and heatwaves. Nine of ten interviewed scientists agreed that surpassing 1.5°C is inevitable, though rapid decarbonization could mitigate long-term risks. The world is warming at a rate of 0.1°C every five years, underscoring the urgency of climate action.
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